Even achieving this requires a thousand-fold scale up from the 20,000 passenger FCVs on the road today, and a dramatic reduction in the cost of producing green hydrogen. Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world. About 290 million charging points are needed globally by 2040 to support the growing EV fleet. It sees more than a short-term effect as lockdowns ease. Mobility is at the core of modern civilization, and the way people and goods move impacts many aspects of life. Two- and three-wheeled vehicles (scooters, mopeds, motorcycles, tuktuks and rickshaws) and municipal buses are already going electric quickly and accelerate further in the next five years, spreading beyond China. With the crisis having already had ramifications for the global oil market, contributing to a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, there remains uncertainty over the scale of the knock-on impact on clean energy markets. • Implications for emissions: this year’s report includes more detail on how road transport emissions will evolve over the next 20 years. build the sensor supply chain to enable this. Diesel and eventually hydrogen fuel cell buses round out the rest of the fleet by 2040 in areas where installing charging infrastructure is difficult, or where temperatures are extreme, or near industrial clusters where hydrogen production is being deployed, or finally where local incumbents favor such technology». BNEF has therefore also reduced its expectations for newly installed PV capacity in 2020. Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) account for a larger share of our short-term forecast than in the past, in particular in Europe as automakers push to meet the 2030 vehicle CO2 targets. BloombergNEF (BNEF), Bloomberg’s primary research service, covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities. Some smart charging and time-of-use pricing will be needed to prevent localized constraints, but overall the power market can comfortably integrate the additional demand. We have also updated electricity load profiles by segment, and our ‘infrastructure de-rating factors’ in our model with more detailed information on housing types and access to home charging infrastructure. The important new areas of analysis in this year’s EVO are the following: Some near-term EV model launches will be delayed, but manufacturers so far are sticking to their long-term electrification commitments. • Covid-19: this year’s forecast comes out at a time By 2040, FCVs account for 1.5% of the medium-duty truck sales, 3.9% of heavy-duty and 6.5% of municipal bus global annual sales. Countries are competing to build the next clusters of high-value industry. Sales of internal combustion passenger vehicles peaked in 2017 and are in permanent decline, but the fleet keeps growing until 2030. It includes forecasts for global EV adoption in: It also includes detailed analysis on shared mobility, autonomous driving, freight demand, EV charging infrastructure and fuel cell vehicles, and explores the resulting impacts on electricity, oil, battery materials and carbon emissions. "These challenging market conditions will be a clear test for government commitments," Birol said. Passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036 and never cross the symbolic 100 million per year mark. The report also discusses the impact of the coronavirus crisis on public transit. But EVs that cannot meet new requirements will not qualify for subsidies after July 22. China and Europe combined represent 72% of all passenger EV sales in 2030, driven by European vehicle CO2 regulations and China’s EV credit system, fuel economy regulations and city policies restricting new internal combustion vehicle sales. By 2040, FCVs account for 1.5% of the medium-duty truck sales, 3.9% of heavy-duty and 6.5% of municipal bus global annual sales». Even in heavy-duty segments, EVs reach more than a third of sales in cities in the U.S., Europe, China and elsewhere by 2040 as many of these operate relatively short trips. Meanwhile, concerns remain that it could fuel further political nationalism and authoritarianism as well as carbon-intensive stimulus packages in some countries. Today there are 500,000 e-buses in operation globally. Cumulative investment in all types of charging hardware and installation reaches $500 billion globally by 2040. And the share of battery-operated vehicles is bound to cover «over 67% of the global bus fleet in 2040». "But the good news is that compared to economic stimulus packages of the past we have much cheaper renewable technologies, have made major progress in electric vehicles, and there is a supportive financial community for the clean energy transition. Nevertheless, it warned there was still considerable downside risk on its original 2020 forecasts for wind capacity deployment, which had estimated new onshore and offshore installations could reach 75.4 GW this year. Technology changes are at the core of this transition, but other factors are also playing an important role. endobj Hardware costs fall rapidly as the technology becomes commoditized. Contact us, China Dominates the Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chain, but Europe is on the Rise, China’s Ganfeng to Be Largest Lithium Hydroxide Producer, Japan Dives to Secure Cobalt and Nickel in the Ocean, U.S. Driving Season Suffers Hit From Covid-19 Pandemic, Waymo, GM Robotaxis Coming to a Street Near You by 2040, Ten Innovative Companies Named as 2020 BNEF Pioneers, Tesla Targets Cobalt-Free Batteries in All Models, Low-Cost Lithium Carbonate Incentivizes LFP Battery Switch, China passenger EV sales were up 30% year-on-year in July, Covid-19 slashed China EV sales by nearly 40% in 1H 2020.

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