Specifically, for each of the three discount rates it considered, the IWG produced a frequency distribution of 50,000 realizations from each model (stratifying across the five socioeconomic scenarios and drawing randomly from the probability distributions for equilibrium climate sensitivity [ECS] and model-specific distributions for other parameters) and then pooled these realizations, yielding a frequency distribution of 150,000 realizations. It is important to consider what constitutes a domestic impact in the case of a global pollutant that could have international implications that impact the United States. In PAGE, population affects per capita income, which enters into each category of damages within the model. 2 The population results in Figure 5-1 are from a sensitivity analysis that scales global population with the regional distribution fixed. It was based on an interpretation of a meta-analysis of past global damage estimates (Tol, 2009). More specific peer-reviewed structured expert elicitation studies that address hard-to-quantify damage categories may be useful in helping to calibrate a damage function to quantitative studies that examine specific impacts. In addition to recommendations regarding the incorporation of uncertainty in the modeling process, the committee reiterates its recommendations on the presentation of uncertainty from its Phase 1 report. However, when aggregating across models, it is important to consider the degree of dependence of the estimates across models: see Box 5-1. You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Currently, the damage component of an SC-IAM translates streams of socioeconomic variables (e.g., income and population and gross domestic product [GDP]) and physical climatic variables (e.g., changes in temperature and sea level) into streams of monetized damages over time. These activities are important to monitor and are discussed in the context of our proposals for the longer term, in the final section of this chapter. In the SC-IAMs, damages to ecosystems are most often valued using contingent valuation estimates of existence value or direct ecosystem services (e.g., Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000; Anthoff and Tol, 2014). A number of individuals and organizations contributed to the successful completion of this report. Table 5-3 lists a number of studies that could be used as resources for a near-term update to individual SC-IAM damage formulations and the damages module as a whole. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. The relationship between temperature exposure and crop yields depends strongly on whether crops are irrigated (Schlenker and Roberts, 2009; Houser et al., 2015); the ability to irrigate will in turn depend on impacts on water resources. The literature includes impact and damage research that varies in scope. Climate damages can occur through a variety of pathways, some quantifiable, some identifiable but hard to quantify, and some unknown. However, there is no ideal disaggregation level, as there are many factors to consider and tradeoffs with high and low resolution. “The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages – that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive – from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. In the future, the calibration of damage functions needs to be compared to point estimates from newer literature as either validation of or justification for updates; and, where possible, assessment of the damage calibration using hindcasting and comparisons to empirical, studies will be valuable. Table 5-3 illustrates that agriculture, energy, mortality, and coastal damages provide some of the most immediate opportunities for updates, with both empirical (last row of Table 5-3) and structural modeling analyses (various rows). Kirsten Sampson-Snyder guided the report through the National Academies review process, and Eugenia Grohman provided editorial direction. If you are at an office or shared network, you can ask the network administrator to run a scan across the network looking for misconfigured or infected devices. If such assessments are not available, the IWG should derive estimates from a review of the peer-reviewed literature, with care taken so as to not introduce inconsistencies with the formally assessed parameters. Together with the associated population and GDP projections, these climate results would serve as inputs to the damages module that would calculate the monetary value, each year, of net climate damages due to projected emissions.

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