"The troubles in the subprime sector seem unlikely to seriously spill over to the broader economy or the financial system," he said. That was the plan in June 2008.White is wearing his pinstriped suits again. There was no way of verifying his model, they said.Besides, who was about to question success? "Three days later, Greenspan addressed the annual meeting of the American Bankers Association in Palm Desert, California, via satellite. There, in the mountains between cow pastures and ski resorts, he and his wife planned to relax and enjoy their retirement, and to live a peaceful existence punctuated only by the occasional vacation trip. In Germany, entire banks were soon seeking government bailout funds. Investors were apparently borrowing cheap money from foreign lenders.This is the sort of thing that worries him. This, he argued, counteracts bubbles and makes it possible to lower interest rates in bad times. Everything that is discussed there is confidential. Economist salaries at BIS can range from £27,477 - £78,472. "You can see all the ingredients of a Greek tragedy," says White. "He is familiar with human nature, and he knows how to handle it. Then he packed his bags again and jetted to London, where he consulted with the Treasury. Because the rating agencies were being paid by the companies they rated, the committee argued, there was a risk that they might rate some companies too highly and be reluctant to lower the ratings of others that should have been downgraded. "This is an opportunity we can't afford to miss," BIS economist Claudio Borio told his boss, White, as he wrote himself a few last-minute notes in his room at the Jackson Lake Lodge in preparation for his speech to the symposium.Greenspan was in the audience when Borio and White presented their theories -- theories that had absolutely nothing in common with the powerful Fed chairman's worldview, or that of most of his colleagues.White and Borio described the dramatic changes that had taken place since deregulation of the financial markets in the 1980s. Nowadays no one is talking about the free market's ability to heal itself.And everything happened just the way White predicted it would.This is visibly unpleasant for officials at the BIS. "Unfortunately, we don't have a generally recognized model yet. Why did the central bankers, of all people -- those whose actions are above profit expectations, shareholder pressure and the need to please voters -- keep their eyes tightly shut? "As long as everything goes well, there is a great reluctance to (make) any kind of change," says White. This, according to White, was the cardinal error. "Even though this is what he has been saying for more than 10 years, White, a passionate financial professional, is the last person to show signs of bitterness. The downfall was in sight, and yet no one dared disrupt the party, no one except White, the lone BIS economist, who says: "If returns are too good to be true, then it's too good to be true. Other members of the audience glanced surreptitiously at the Maestro to gauge his reaction. Did they too succumb to the general herd instinct? The consequences, according to White, are high costs to the real economy: unemployment, a credit crunch and bankruptcies.All it takes to predict such imbalances, White argued, is to monitor "excessive credit expansion and asset price increases," and to take corrective action early on, even without a pending threat of inflation.This task, the authors concluded, must be performed by monetary policy, among other things. A few weeks later, the market demonstrated its destructive power once again, when Russia plunged into a financial crisis, bringing down the New York hedge fund Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) along with it. A loss of confidence began to take shape.The first casualties began surfacing a few weeks later. We all played the same game. After that, he returned to Switzerland to speak at the University of Basel, and then went on to Frankfurt to present a paper at the Center for Financial Studies. The better the economy is doing, the higher the ratings issued by the rating agencies, the laxer the guidelines for approving credit, the easier it becomes to borrow money and the greater the willingness to assume risk.A bubble develops. But no action was taken. There are no public minutes of the meetings.

What did Greenspan do? "Our meetings are generally not oriented toward decision-making.

From there, White traveled to Paris to attend a meeting at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). "The Maestro had spoken -- and the party could continue.William White and his Basel team were dumbstruck. The central banks, according to White, must actively counteract bubbles and exert stronger control over the financial industry, including hedge funds and insurance companies.As an adviser to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's group of experts, White helped to shape the basic tenets of the new order. To give all this money somewhere to go, investment bankers invented new financial products that were increasingly sophisticated, imaginative -- and hazardous.As far back as 2003, White implored central bankers to rethink their strategies, noting that instability in the financial markets had triggered inflation, the "villain" in the global economy.



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